Energy usage prediction and control system and method

ABSTRACT

A controller and/or a gateway acts as a feedback-based energy estimator for controlling initial and refined estimates of energy usage of one or more buildings controlled by the controller or gateway. An initial estimate of a building&#39;s energy needs for a specified time in the future (e.g., a month or a week ahead) are calculated, and then over time, in conjunction with an energy company, the initial estimate (and subsequent estimates) is revised based on the costs of the energy predicted or quoted by the energy company. The controller may examine jobs to be performed at the time as well as predictive information that may affect the building&#39;s energy needs (e.g., the predicted temperature for the time of the predicted energy needs). As expectations change (or as predicted factors such as temperature change), the energy company may be informed of the additional energy that will be needed (e.g., if the predicted temperature is increasing and cooling will be needed) or the excess energy that is expected (e.g., if the predicted temperature is decreasing and less cooling will be needed).

CROSS REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATIONS

The present application is related to the following co-pendingapplications, each of which is incorporated herein by reference: (1)application Ser. No. 11/889,633, entitled Multi-Input BuildingController, filed on even date and (2) application Ser. No. 11/889,632,entitled Multi-Input Building Controller, filed on even date.

FIELD OF INVENTION

The present invention is directed to the field of energy usageprediction and in one embodiment to a method and system for predictingenergy usage and refining the prediction as the energy needs are updatedor changed.

DISCUSSION OF THE BACKGROUND

Electrical power control can be divided into several distinct processes:generation, transmission (including independent service operators),distribution and supply (wholesale and retail). Each of these processescan potentially be provided by a different energy company or serviceprovider. However, each such company cannot operate in a vacuum as theamount of power generated must match the amount of power consumed.Moreover, since the amount of power that can be generated at any pointin time is finite, there are cost considerations with requiring (andtherefore buying) additional electricity without advanced notice.Typically in high demand times, the cost of buying electricity in thespot market (i.e., short-term market) is higher than had the electricitybeen purchased in advance such that additional generation could havebeen planned in advance.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

The following description, given with respect to the attached drawings,may be better understood with reference to the non-limiting examples ofthe drawings, wherein:

FIG. 1 is a schematic illustration of an energy usage coordinatorcontrolling the energy usage of individual buildings of a group (orportfolio) of buildings;

FIG. 2 is a schematic illustration of an energy usage coordinatorcontrolling the energy usage of groups of buildings of a portfolio ofbuildings;

FIG. 3 is a schematic illustration of an energy usage coordinatorcontrolling the energy usage of individual buildings of groups ofbuildings in a portfolio of buildings;

FIG. 4 is a schematic illustration of an energy usage coordinatorcontrolling the energy usage of individual buildings of groups ofbuildings in a portfolio of buildings;

FIG. 5 is a schematic illustration of a hierarchy of energy usagecoordinators controlling the energy usage of individual buildings and/orgroups of buildings in a portfolio of buildings;

FIG. 6 is a schematic illustration of an energy usage coordinatorcontrolling the energy usage of a group of buildings (using distributedcontrol) in a portfolio of buildings;

FIG. 7 is a marginal demand curve for a particular future time showingthe trade off between price and how much energy a consumer (e.g., abuilding) is willing to consume at that price at that time; and

FIG. 8 is a usage curve showing minimum, predicted and maximum usageversus time.

DISCUSSION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

Turning to FIG. 1, an energy usage coordinator 100 is arranged tocontrol the energy usage of individual buildings of a group (orportfolio) of buildings in one or more load zones. These buildings haveall contracted with an energy company which controls (directly orindirectly) the energy usage coordinator. By agreeing to lower energyusage when called upon, the owners or managers of the buildings receivea preferential energy rate from the energy company. Such a preferentialrate may be in the form of a fixed rate reduction or a variable ratereduction. Fixed rate reductions include, but are not limited to, afixed reduced rate for the year, a fixed reduced rate for the month(s)that the building(s) reduced energy usage on demand, a fixed reducedrate for the day(s) that the building(s) reduced energy usage on demand,a fixed rate for the hours that the buildings reduced energy usage ondemand. For example, if a building would be able to contract for$0.019/kW hr for its energy usage over the whole year, it may instead beable to contract for $0.018/kW hr for its energy usage over the wholeyear if it agrees to reduce its energy usage on demand (whether it everis called on to reduce demand or not). Alternatively, the building mayinstead be able to contract for $0.0185/kW hr for its energy usage overthe whole year if it agrees to reduce its energy usage on demand plus itreceives a rebate of $100/month or $10/day for each month or day that itactually reduces energy usage on demand. Other fixed reductions are alsopossible.

Variable rate reductions include, but are not limited to, a sharing ofthe percentage of the cost that the energy company would have otherwiseincurred had the building not reduced its energy usage. For example, ifduring a peak demand time the energy company would have had to purchase$100 more of electricity in the market had the building not reduced itsenergy usage, and instead the energy company only had to buy $20 ofelectricity, the energy company could provide the building with a $40credit or payment representing half of the energy company's savings.Similarly, if a building has reduced energy needs (and therefore excessenergy available compared to previous predictions), the building maysell its excess capacity to the energy company for a percentage (e.g.,75%) of what the energy company can obtain for it in the market. Otherpercentages and variable rates are also possible. The energy companycould likewise utilize a combination of fixed and variable ratereductions, and/or customer credits or payments in order to better suitits or its customers' needs.

The energy usage coordinator includes a sufficient number of energyusage meters 110 to measure energy usage at the various buildings in theportfolio. The energy usage meters might also measure the energy usewithin specific buildings if the load being curtailed is all on onecircuit or area or if the load drop is being provided by a generatorbehind (on the customer side of) the master meter.

Exemplary conditions which may cause the building to be called upon tolower usage include, but are not limited to, prices are high or theelectric grid cannot supply enough power to specific points. Thus, whena building is called upon to reduce energy usage, it may or may not bebased on the marginal price of electricity to those points. For example,a condition where price is a factor is when the energy company needs toobtain more power than expected on behalf of its customers and it is aperiod of peak usage such that the energy company may have to pay a veryhigh price on the spot or short term market. Alternatively, a conditionwhere price is not a factor is when an energy company has an emergencyneed to regulate voltage or the transmission grid is constrained, and itis requesting that buildings reduce energy usage to help with thatregulation/constraint. The buildings that respond may still obtainfinancial consideration for compliance with the reduction request, butthere is no a market per se for such requests.

Accordingly, the energy usage coordinator preferably includes an energyusage estimation system 120 that tracks and/or estimates the amount ofenergy that the energy company has already contracted to purchase todetermine whether it predicts that the buildings in its portfolio aregoing to need more energy than was previously expected (e.g., by itslong term or mid term models). Preferably the energy usage coordinatoralso includes a communications adapter with which it can receiveemergency (and other) requests relating to the health and/or operationof the grid(s).

The amount that a building is to reduce, if called upon to reduce by anenergy company, can be a negotiated amount, an amount given by aformula, or an amount given by a marginal demand curve. The marginaldemand curve is given with respect to an energy baseline. As usedherein, the term “baseline” shall be understood to mean what thebuilding would have used at its contracted rates under normal operatingconditions without any actions by the energy usage coordinator.

For an individual building, the marginal demand curve for electricity isbased on the value of the electricity at any point in time in thefuture. The value of electricity is determined by a formula or by theproperty owner that varies by building type. The inputs into thisformula may come from various sources, including, but not limited to,monitors in the building, market data and other environmental data suchas weather forecasts. For example in a retail store the value ofelectricity is highest during open hours and when the store is full. Ina manufacturing setting the value of the electricity might be the grossmargin generated on an incremental unit produced at the manufacturingfacility. In an office building the value of electricity might be afunction of the time of day, weekend/weekday and number of people in thebuilding, temperature forecast for the rest of the day. If there is agenerator present the value of electricity might be determined by whatit would cost to run the generator.

As shown in FIG. 7, the marginal demand curve shows the trade offbetween price and how much energy this building is willing to consume atthat price. The amount of energy consumption also would be constrainedby the operational ranges for the building which therefore control aminimum (Q₀) and a maximum (Q₁) energy that can be used by the buildingat any one time. Exemplary ranges for a building include, but are notlimited to, a lighting range (e.g., in lumens), a temperature range, anair flow range (e.g., in cubic feet per second), and/or an up-time ordown-time range (e.g., the amount of time that an engine or process mustbe up or may be down, for example as measured in hours per day, month oryear). As illustrated, the usage (or load) that a customer is willing tocurtail or allowed to be “called” on is the area to the left of thebaseline and above the marginal demand curve (and above the base ratedefined by a current contract or tariff). The energy that a customer iswilling to dispatch or allow the energy controller to “put” into itsbuilding is represented by the area to the right of the baseline andbelow the marginal demand curve (and below the base rate defined by acurrent contract or tariff). The energy controller can either bid theseput and call options into the market to maximize the price or exercisethe put and call options based on market prices.

On a periodic basis (hourly, daily, monthly, annually) the system or anagent for the system would develop the marginal demand curve forelectricity for some future period (next hour, next 24 hours, next Xhours for up to X years) through either a formula or through manualinput (e.g., by the property owner or his agent). The marginal demandcurve could be calculated for a building (1) manually, (2) by formulawithin a building automation system or gateway or (3) by the energyusage coordinator. As shown in FIG. 8, the minimum and maximum energyutilization of a building may change over time (e.g., based on whatprocesses are on-going, external temperature, number of clients, etc.).Similarly, the differential between the minimum and maximum energyutilization of a building may change over time.

In cases where the price of electricity (energy, capacity, ancillaryservices, T&D) for a future period (tomorrow, next X days, next Xmonths, next X years) has not been fixed yet the energy usagecoordinator would “bid” the available load into the market for theappropriate period. Based on what bids the market accepts the energyusage coordinator would then wait until the appropriate time for whichthe bids were selected and request reductions in usage at correspondingbuildings.

Baseline usage estimates can be determined through a number of differentmodels and formulas. The formulas will vary by type of program or typeof energy product being delivered by the energy coordinator. Examplebaselines include, but are not limited to, the average of the 3 highestdays in the last 10 days excluding event days, a regression based onpast usage and the weather, and the average of the highest 5 days fromlast year.

When using a marginal demand curve, the marginal demand curve data fromthe buildings would then be transmitted to the energy usage coordinatorwho would then add up all the demand curves by a price point. This wouldcreate a portfolio demand curve. The energy usage coordinator would thentake information from at least one energy market and determine the costof electricity through the use of pricing formulas for the portfolio asa whole and for individual facilities in the portfolio. Then the energyusage coordinator would choose which buildings to curtail based on themarginal value of the electricity used by the building and marginal costelectricity. Buildings that value the electricity below the cost of theelectricity would be curtailed first. Buildings that value theelectricity the highest would be curtailed last.

As illustrated in FIG. 1, the energy company (through an energy usagecoordinator) can send a signal to a first building (represented as adashed building) in its portfolio of client buildings to ask the firstbuilding to enter a power savings mode and reduce its energy usage for aspecified period of time (e.g., 15 minutes) and/or at a specific time(e.g., at 2 PM). The power saving mode can be achieved by (a)disconnecting any of the high energy devices (e.g., air conditioners) atthe first building from the power lines associated with the energycompany (hereinafter referred to as the “main power lines”), (b)lowering the voltage applied to the high energy devices or slowing downthe high energy devices, (c) cycling the high energy devices, (d)turning on generators, and (e) any combination of (a)-(d) within theconstraints of the building operation such that the building does not goout of constraints (temperature, airflow, process, run-time, etc.). In(a), the high energy devices are turned off which causes the firstbuilding to run without the high energy device(s) for a period of time.In (d), the first building can switch to generator power for that highenergy device such that the first building has to bear the cost ofrunning that high energy device. The way that a building turns off powermight be determined by a set of instructions, by the marginal value ofthe running that equipment within the build or by manual control. Asdiscussed above, the saved power can be used to reduce the energycompany's needs or, if the energy company has enough power, sold to themarket.

At the end of the time period, the first building can reconnect thepreviously disconnected high energy devices to the main power lines.

Prior to the first building getting ready to exit the power savingsmode, the energy usage coordinator contacts a second building in itsportfolio to request that the second building enter a power savings modeand reduce its energy usage for a specified period of time (e.g., 15minutes) and/or at a specific time (e.g., at 2:15 PM). As with the firstbuilding, this can be done by (a) disconnecting any of the high energydevices (e.g., air conditioners) at the second building from the mainpower lines, (b) lowering the voltage applied to the high energy devicesor slowing down the high energy devices, (c) cycling the high energydevices, (d) turning on generators, and (e) any combination of (a)-(d).This process then continues on for each of the remaining buildings in aportfolio (e.g., in non-overlapping 15 minute increments) such that theoverall energy usage of the portfolio is reduced (1) during times whenthe energy company would have otherwise had to buy additional energyunder unfavorable terms or (2) in order to sell excess power to themarket.

The various requests needed to reach a target energy usage can be sentout to all necessary buildings before any building reduces its energyusage (e.g., such that an optimal pre-established order of reductionscan be calculated in advance). Alternatively, the various requestsneeded to reach a target energy usage can be sent out to all necessarybuildings on a rolling basis such that some buildings only receive theirrequest to reduce usage after at least one building in the portfolio hasalready its energy usage. Likewise, the order can be determined by whichbuildings value the electricity the least at a point in time. Buildingsthat value electricity the lowest get called first.

As discussed, the above methods work during times when the energycompany would have otherwise had to buy additional energy underunfavorable terms, as well as when the energy company determines thatthe amount of energy that it could save by reducing usage has asufficiently high value that the energy company may wish to sell thesaved energy into one of the available markets (e.g., the capacity,ancillary and energy markets). For example, the energy company maydetermine from a market information service 140 that the energy marketis currently selling energy for twice what its building portfolio hascontracted to pay for it. Instead of selling it to the buildingportfolio by allowing the building portfolio to use it, the energycompany through the energy usage coordinator informs the buildings ofthe portfolio to reduce their energy usage as described above. Becausethe energy company now has excess energy over what its portfolio isprojected to need, the energy company can sell it in the market (e.g.,spot market or day ahead market) for a profit. (This profit would haveto be sufficient to offset the fixed and/or variable rate reductionsowed to the customers of the portfolio because of their reductions inorder for it to be beneficial to the energy company.) The excess energycould also be used to cover the energy company's short position, if itexists, such that the energy company does not have to buy it from amarket (e.g., the real time or day ahead markets).

Under the above processes (as well as other processes described herein),the energy usage coordinator would verify via the energy usage meters110 that the energy usage of the buildings was actually reduced todetermine if the buildings actually were in compliance with theiragreements. If a building did not reduce its energy usage when requestedto do so, a penalty may be applied. Such a penalty may include, but isnot limited to, (1) increasing its rate to what it would have paid hadit not previously agreed to reduce its usage, (2) paying for the cost tothe energy company associated with having to purchase additional energyon the corresponding market plus an additional percentage or flat fee,or (3) having to agree to an additional number of energy reductionrequests in the future. A combination of penalties is also possible.

The sending of a reduction request can take any number of forms thatenable the energy usage coordinator to communicate directly orindirectly or manually with controllers for the high energy devices ofthe buildings in the portfolio. Such controllers may either be internalto or external to the high energy devices, and the controllers mayeither be dedicated to individual high energy devices or shared betweenhigh energy devices. The controllers may utilize any control interfacefor communicating with the high energy devices. For example, an internalcomputer bus may be used when the controller is internal to the highenergy device. Alternatively, a control interface such as a serialconnection (e.g., an RS-232 connection or a USB connection), a wirelessconnection or a parallel connection can be used when the controller isan external controller. These controllers can be connected to a buildingautomation system.

Such controllers may use any number of communications adapters forcommunicating with the energy usage coordinator or other informationservices. For example, the energy usage coordinator can use a telephonedialing device to contact a telephone-based controller (e.g.,PSTN-based, cellular-based or VoIP-based) connected to the high energydevices of a building. The controller could then receive DTMF- ormodem-based commands informing it of when and/or for how long to reduceenergy usage in the building. Alternatively, the energy usagecoordinator could use a network adapter to establishIP-communication-based connections (e.g., using TCP/IP, RDP/IP orUDP/IP) between the energy usage coordinator and the controllers at thevarious buildings. Telephone-based communications would further includeGPRS and any other data service for mobile phones.

IP-communication-based connections may be made using one or acombination of wire-based or wireless communications protocols (e.g.,Ethernet, WiFi using the 802.11 family of protocols, WiMax and ZigBee).In one embodiment where the controllers use TCP/IP-based communications,the controllers include a World Wide Web interface where the energyusage coordinator (or a user working on its behalf) can connect to thecontroller, authenticate itself to the controller, and then issue anenergy reduction request for a particular time and/or time period eitherprogrammatically or with an HTML form sent from the controller.Alternatively, a gateway may communicate (directly or indirectly) withthe controller or a building automation system that communicates withthe controller. The communication from the gateway to the controller canuse any of the communications adapters and protocols discussed above.

As shown in FIG. 2, the same process described above for individualbuildings can be used for groups of buildings. The exemplary energyusage coordinator controls multiple (e.g., 4) buildings per group in aportfolio and requests that all of the buildings in a first group reducetheir energy usage for a specified period of time (e.g., 15 minutes)and/or at a specific time (e.g., at 2 PM). The process then repeats forthe remaining groups of buildings in the portfolio. While FIG. 2 isillustrated as having the same number of buildings in each group,different numbers of buildings per group can be used instead. Also,while all the buildings of a group are illustrated to be complying witha reduction request at the same time, less than all of the buildings(e.g., a half or a quarter) in the group may be requested to complyduring a first time period while the remaining buildings in the firstgroup are requested to comply at a later period without having any ofthe other groups complying with a request for a period simultaneous withthe first group's period(s).

As shown in FIG. 3, the same process described above for individualbuildings can be used for groups of buildings where only a subset ofbuildings per group are requested to reduce usage at a time. Theexemplary energy usage coordinator controls multiple (e.g., 4) groups ina portfolio simultaneously and requests that at least one of thebuildings in the group reduces its energy usage for a specified periodof time (e.g., 15 minutes) and/or at a specific time (e.g., at 2 PM).The process then repeats for the remaining buildings of the variousgroups in the portfolio. Also, while all the groups are illustrated tohave received requests for reduced usage for a single time period, lessthan all of the groups (e.g., a half or a quarter) in the portfolio mayreceive a request for a first time period while the remaining groupsreceive their requests for a later period. The sequencing of thebuilding within the group could be determined by the group, by therelative value of the power to each building with the group or bynegotiation among the group members.

As shown in FIG. 4, the same process described above for individualbuildings can be used for groups of buildings where a different numberof buildings per group may be controlled on a group-by-group basis.Because of differences in how much energy can be reduced in the lastgroup of buildings as compared with the other groups, the illustratedenergy usage coordinator requests energy reductions in (a) one buildingper group for three of its groups and (b) two buildings in the lastgroup to achieve the same amount of reduction between the four groups.These reductions may be for the same time period for all the groups ormay be for sequential time periods. The amount of saved (or reducedpower) need not be the same between each group or between each timeperiod.

As shown in FIG. 5, a hierarchy of energy usage coordinators can be usedto control the energy usage within their assigned groups. In such aconfiguration, the master energy usage coordinator requests certainlevels of energy reduction per controller and then leaves the decisionabout how to achieve that energy reduction up to the individual (local)energy usage coordinators.

While the embodiments of FIGS. 1-5 have been discussed with respect tothe energy usage coordinator sending requests to the buildings in theportfolio, bi-directional communication is also possible. For example, abuilding may need to inform the energy usage coordinator that it cannotcomply with a received request for a reduction in energy usage at aparticular time. This may occur, for example, if the high energy devicesare already off such that no additional energy savings can be achieved.This response could be in the form of a “cannot comply” message. In thiscase the energy coordinator would then request a load from the next inline facility. As discussed earlier the next facility could bedetermined by the value of power or by a sequence (e.g., a randomsequence or a pre-determined sequence).

The bi-directional communication can alternatively be used by a buildingto notify the energy usage coordinator that it will not or cannot reduceits energy usage at the specified time but that it could alternativelyreduce energy usage at other times, if known. For example, if a coolingcycle just started, the building could respond by notifying the energyusage coordinator that it could reduce energy usage in 30 minutes. Thismay enable the energy usage coordinator to reorder how it requestsenergy reductions in buildings in the portfolio. In addition thebuilding may provide forecasts of its expected energy use for the energyusage coordinator to use instead of the energy coordinator's (or theenergy company's) based on data collected within the building orsupplied to the building. This information coupled with the demand curvefor the building provides the energy coordinator the necessaryinformation to determine when and for how much to curtail the building.

As shown in FIG. 6, bi-directional communication can further be used toenable a group of buildings to decide between themselves whichbuildings, if any, of the group can respond to a reduction request, andby how much and for how long. This decision between themselves may bebased on the relative value of electricity within each building. Thebuildings can then report the result(s) back to the energy usagecoordinator who can then coordinate with other groups, if necessary, tomeet the company's target energy usage level. As discussed above, thistarget energy usage level may be set for any number of reasons,including, but not limited to, avoiding going over the energy company'sprojected usage or reducing energy usage to take advantage of afavorable resale value for the energy that the buildings would haveotherwise used.

The teachings described herein can additionally be performed in acooperative manner instead of a command manner. That is, instead of theenergy usage coordinator requesting that buildings comply with requestsor face penalties, the energy usage coordinator could instead querybuildings within the group to find out what the value to the building isfor reducing its energy usage at the present time or at a future time(e.g., 1 hour later to many years in the future). For example, whenthere are favorable conditions in one of the energy markets, the energyusage coordinator may ask one or more buildings what kind of ratereduction or rebate or credit the building would need to be given inorder to reduce its energy usage now or in the future. Such adetermination may require that the buildings be given or obtain forthemselves information on historical, current or predicted marketconditions (from a market information service 140) and/or otherhistorical, current or predicted information (e.g., weather information)from historical, current and predicted information services 170. If theenergy usage coordinator received results that indicated that the profitwould be significant enough to warrant reselling the unused power, theenergy usage coordinator would request that the buildings commit to thatreduction and the energy company would resell the unused energy.

Alternatively, the energy usage coordinator may simply ask if there areany buildings that would reduce energy usage for a particular credit orrebate. If an insufficient number of buildings responded affirmatively,then the energy usage coordinator may be forced to raise its bid and tryagain. When the energy usage coordinator has a sufficient number ofconfirmed reductions, it can decide to either commit to the sale or not.In either cooperative technique, the price that the energy company sellsthe unused energy for would typically be greater than its bid to thebuildings or the price at which it purchased the energy from thebuildings.

While portions of the above discussion have been made with reference toenergy reductions prompted by the energy usage coordinator 100, thereverse is also possible. For example, one or more buildings within theportfolio may wish to request to reduce load in exchange for financialcompensation or may request additional load at lower than their currentrate if the market has lower priced power. To do this, the buildingrequests that the energy usage coordinator obtain bids for the excessenergy. Reasons that a building may wish to reduce load include, but arenot limited to: (a) to avoid setting a new peak which will impact demandand capacity charges, (b) to take advantage of when the marginal cost ofpower is lower than the marginal benefit of utilizing that power,especially during periods of high hourly prices, and (c) requests toshed load from companies other than the energy company with whom theyhave a contract (e.g., the utility, supplier or ISO).

A building may also determine that additional energy is needed such thatit wishes to enter an increased power mode. To determine if it iseconomical to do so, a building requests that the energy usagecoordinator obtain bids for the needed energy and, if the bid is belowthe marginal demand curve, then the building may obtain theexcess/additional energy.

In addition to the energy usage meters 110, the energy usage coordinatormay communicate with temperature measurement devices which monitor thetemperature of buildings in the portfolio to determine a number ofconditions. Such conditions include, but are not limited to, whether thebuilding is already too hot to try to request a reduction in energyusage, whether the building is warming more quickly than anticipated andan energy reduction of the building needs to be canceled, and whetherthe temperature part way through or after an energy reduction indicatesthat the period of energy reduction could or should be extended.

Additional factors (historical, real-time and predicted) that may beused to determine whether to request usage reductions, whether to sellcapacity, and/or to help forecast usage include but are not limited to:the time and the date, weekday vs. weekend, weather measurements(temperature, wind speed, sunshine, humidity, etc.), energy usageindicators (such as building occupancy, number of filled or bookedrooms, beds filled, customers in the store), measures of the building'scondition (such as inside temperature, lumens, and air flow), measure ofthe electricity market value (such as hourly prices, day-ahead prices,forward prices, capacity prices, congestion prices, locational marginalprices, distribution prices, transmission prices, ancillary servicesprices) and measures of the other commodity values (e.g., gas, oil,metals, plastics).

Controllers associated with the high energy devices may also beprogrammed with processing rules by a building manager or the energyusage coordinator such that the controllers can respond to variouschanging conditions without having to be contacted by the energy usagecoordinator. Such autonomous control would allow the controllers toreact more quickly to potentially take advantage of advantageousconditions and/or avoid disadvantageous conditions. For example, bytracking information from market information services 140 and/or fromhistorical, current and predicted information services 170, a controllermay be programmed to reduce energy usage autonomously if (1) the outsidetemperature reaches 95 degrees and the market price for electricity inone or more of the short term markets has increased by more than 50%,(2) the real-time energy prices reach $500/MW hr and forecastedtemperatures for the next four hours drop by 10 degrees, and (3) thebuilding (or a group of cooperatively operating buildings of a customer)is reaching 95% of its annual peak demand and real-time energy pricesreach $300/MW hr. Numerous other conditions are possible withoutdeparting from the teachings herein.

Alternatively, a gateway may be programmed with the processing rules bythe building manager or the energy usage coordinator such that thegateway controls the controllers which can then respond to variouschanging conditions without having to be contacted by the energy usagecoordinator.

Communications between the building and the energy company may occurthrough the use of an open or a proprietary interface. In an exemplaryinterface, a gateway includes a communications interface thatcommunicates with the energy company. The interface service may be aweb-service or another network data exchange protocol (HTTP, GPRS,TCP/IP). The interface service may utilize push and/or pulltransactions. In one such embodiment, information is passed between thegateway and the energy company at various times and/or after theoccurrence of certain events to communicate information between thegateway and the energy company. For example, load and other data pointsmay be sent between the gateway and the energy company, and/or theenergy company may send prices (e.g., hourly, sub-hourly, daily, monthlyetc.) to the building(s) via the gateway. Alternatively, bids or eventsignals of different types (including length of event, amount of load orspecific equipment turn on/off or variable changes) can be sent.Similarly, future load schedules or baselines can be sent between thegateway and the energy company. Likewise, acknowledgements and verifiedevent compliance data can be sent. Furthermore, building monitoredpoints data (inside temp, air flow, etc.) and/or updated availability ofload to be dispatched may be sent.

The interface logically includes three functional components: (1) anenergy company-side component, (2) a gateway- or controller-sidecomponent and (3) the information or transaction that goes between thecomponents on the two sides (e.g., as described in the previousparagraph). The energy company-side component typically will reside on aserver under the control of the energy company and remote from thecustomer. The gateway- or controller-side component will typicallyreside in the customer's building automation system, on the customer'sPC or on a gateway associated with the customer. The gateway- orcontroller-side component associated with the customer will preferablyinclude support for different IT platforms/chipsets (Windows, Linux) andsoftware development languages (Java, C, etc.) and databases (SQL,Proprietary etc.)

Energy usage coordinators are described herein can be implemented inhardware (e.g., using ASICs) or in software running on a general purposecomputer, or in a combination of both. Moreover, the software may beembedded on a computer readable memory (e.g., a CD, a DVD or flashmemory) and control the processor of the general purpose computer toachieve the above described functionality, using one or more processes,each with one or more threads of control. The energy usage coordinatorsmay additional store information in and retrieve information from atleast one database each of which can be either local to or remote fromthe general purpose computer. Energy usage coordinators may additionallybe agents of an energy company whose contracts with the building and/orprovides energy to the building (directly or indirectly).

In addition to the other functions that are described above, thecontrollers and/or gateways can further be programmed to act asfeedback-based energy estimators. A building (e.g., a factory, a hotel,a hospital, a store or a conference center) makes an initial estimate ofits energy needs for a specified time in the future (e.g., a month or aweek ahead) according to a first set of predicted conditions, and thenover time, in conjunction with the energy company, revises its initialestimate (and subsequent estimates) based on the costs of the energypredicted or quoted by the energy company. For example, if a factory hasbeen producing, on average, 300 widgets per day of various types, thefactory's energy controller is programmed to track and/or predict theamount of energy required to make another 300 widgets for the specifiedperiod in the future (e.g., based on the types of widgets to be made atthat time). The controller may further be programmed to receivepredictive information that may affect the building's energy needs(e.g., the predicted temperature for the time of the predicted energyneeds). Based on the predicted energy needs, the building (through itscontrollers and/or gateway) can inform the energy company of the amountof energy that the energy company should initially expect to procure forthe building.

Later, as expectations change (or as predicted factors such astemperature change), the building may inform the energy company of theadditional energy that will be needed (e.g., if the predictedtemperature is increasing and cooling will be needed) or the excessenergy that is expected (e.g., if the predicted temperature isdecreasing and less cooling will be needed). By providing advancednotice, the energy company can respond in one of several ways. First, itcan simply buy or sell the additional energy without further consultingwith the building (through its gateway and/or controllers). Second, itcan buy or sell options on energy to ensure that it can buy or sell theneeded energy without having to commit to the actual purchase or sale ofthe energy. Lastly, it can price the change in energy needs into themarket to determine what the change in energy usage (e.g., theadditional energy usage) will cost. The energy company can then informthe controllers and/or gateways of the associated costs for the changeto determine if the change is still desired. For example, in the case ofthe factory, if the energy company were to report that the cost of theadditional energy would be more than the expected profit on theadditional goods to be made that day, then the factory may change itsoutput expectations in order to stay in line with its original estimates(e.g., by leaving its predicted output at 300 widgets rather thanincreasing to 325 widgets to try to complete a “rush” order).

At an even later time, the factory may again recalculate its expectedenergy needs to determine if they are still consistent with its reportedexpectations. Again, if not, the new energy usage can be reported to theenergy company so that energy or options can be bought, sold, or energycan priced to determine if further changes are needed. This repetitivefeedback process can be started as far out as the factory can predictits energy needs with a desired degree of certainty. The recalculationphase can then occur at one or more known intervals (e.g., every monthor week and/or as the actual usage gets closer every day or every hour).Rather than time-based updated, event or demand based updates can alsobe used. For example, if the number of widgets to be made on aparticular day changes (such as when a new order is made or an order iscanceled), the energy estimate can be recalculated and transmitted tothe energy company.

While the above feedback process has been described in conjunction witha factory, any other building type with predicted energy needs can beused. For example, a hotel may predict its energy usage based on thenumber of guests that are registered to stay on a particular day (alongwith the predicted temperature information). As the number of guestsincreases and decreases, the hotel can update its predicted energyneeds. Similarly, as a conference center books additional conferences orcancels previously scheduled conferences, it can update its expectedenergy usage as well.

While certain configurations of structures have been illustrated for thepurposes of presenting the basic structures of the present invention,one of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that other variationsare possible which would still fall within the scope of the appendedclaims.

1. An energy controller for controlling energy usage, the energycontroller comprising: an energy predictor for calculating an initialenergy prediction of energy to be used by devices associated with theenergy controller based on an initial prediction of how the devices willbe used at a point in the future; a transmitter for transmitting theinitial energy prediction for the point in the future to an energycompany such that energy purchases can be made in advance for the pointin the future based on the initial energy prediction; and a receiver forreceiving changes to the initial prediction of how the devices will beused at the point in the future, wherein the received changes arecommunicated to the energy predictor to calculate a revised energyprediction for the point in the future based on the received changes,and wherein the transmitter transmits the revised energy prediction forthe point in the future to the energy company, wherein the transmittertransmits the revised energy prediction for the point in the future tothe energy company in conjunction with a request for a revised costrepresenting a cost differential between the initial and revised energypredictions for the point in the future, the controller furthercomprising a feedback controller (1) for receiving the revised cost fromthe energy company, (2) for determining if the devices should be usedaccording to the initial energy prediction or the revised energyprediction based on the revised cost from the energy company, and (3)for notifying the energy company if the devices will be used accordingto the initial energy prediction or the revised energy prediction. 2.The energy controller as claimed in claim 1, wherein the energypredictor further comprises storage for information relating to anotherpredicted condition at the point in the future other than the initialprediction of how the devices will be used at the point in the future.3. The energy controller as claimed in claim 2, wherein the anotherpredicted condition comprises a predicted temperature at the point inthe future.
 4. The energy controller as claimed in claim 1, wherein theinitial prediction of how the devices will be used at a point in thefuture is based on at least one of: an occupancy rate of at least onecorresponding building and a production schedule of at least onecorresponding factory.
 5. The energy controller as claimed in claim 1,wherein the changes to the initial prediction of how the devices will beused at the point in the future are received periodically.
 6. The energycontroller as claimed in claim 1, wherein the changes to the initialprediction of how the devices will be used at the point in the futureare received in response to at least one event.
 7. An energy system forresponding to changes in energy usage from at least one energycontroller controlling an associated at least one device, the energysystem comprising: a communications adapter (A) for receiving from theat least one energy controller (1) an initial energy prediction ofenergy to be used by the at least one device associated with the energycontroller based on an initial prediction of how the at least one devicewill be used at a point in the future and (2) a revised energyprediction based on predicted changes in usage of how the at least onedevice will be used at the point in the future and (B) for transmittinga revised cost representing a cost differential between the initial andrevised energy predictions; and an energy purchasing system forpurchasing (1) energy in response to the initial energy prediction and(2) at least one of energy and energy futures in response to the revisedenergy prediction.
 8. The energy system as claimed in claim 7, whereinin response to the communications adapter transmitting the revised costrepresenting the cost differential between the initial and revisedenergy predictions the receiver further receives a response from the atleast one controller indicating whether the at least one device will useenergy at the initial energy prediction or at the revised energyprediction.
 9. A method for controlling energy usage via an energycontroller, the method comprising: calculating, by an energy predictorimplemented as at least one of hardware and software embedded in acomputer memory and controlling a processor, an initial energyprediction of energy to be used by devices associated with the energycontroller based on an initial prediction of how the devices will beused at a point in the future; transmitting the initial energyprediction to an energy company via a communications adapter such thatenergy purchases can be made in advance by the energy company based onthe initial energy prediction; and receiving changes to the initialprediction of how the devices will be used at the point in the future,wherein the received changes are communicated to the energy predictor tocalculate a revised energy prediction for the point in the future basedon the received changes, and wherein the revised energy prediction istransmitted to the energy company via the communications adapter with arequest for a revised cost representing a cost differential between theinitial and revised energy predictions, the method further comprising(1) receiving the revised cost from the energy company, (2) determiningif the devices should be used according to the initial energy predictionor the revised energy prediction based on the revised cost from theenergy company, and (3) notifying the energy company if the devices willbe used according to the initial energy prediction or the revised energyprediction.
 10. The method as claimed in claim 9, further comprisingreceiving information relating to another predicted condition at thepoint in the future other than the initial prediction of how the deviceswill be used at the point in the future.
 11. The method as claimed inclaim 10, wherein the another predicted condition comprises a predictedtemperature at the point in the future.
 12. The method as claimed inclaim 9, wherein the initial prediction of how the devices will be usedat a point in the future is based on at least one of: an occupancy rateof at least one corresponding building and a production schedule of atleast one corresponding factory.
 13. The method as claimed in claim 9,wherein the changes to the initial prediction of how the devices will beused at the point in the future are received periodically.
 14. Themethod as claimed in claim 9, wherein the changes to the initialprediction of how the devices will be used at the point in the futureare received in response to at least one event.
 15. A method forresponding to changes in energy usage from at least one energycontroller controlling an associated at least one device, the methodcomprising: receiving from the at least one energy controller via acommunications adapter (1) an initial energy prediction of energy to beused by the at least one device associated with the energy controllerbased on an initial prediction of how the at least one device will beused at a point in the future and (2) a revised energy prediction basedon predicted changes in usage of how the at least one device will beused at the point in the future; determining, using at least one ofhardware and software embedded in a computer memory and controlling aprocessor, a revised cost representing a cost differential between theinitial and revised energy predictions; transmitting via thecommunications adapter the revised cost representing a cost differentialbetween the initial and revised energy predictions to the at least oneenergy controller; and purchasing (1) energy in response to the initialenergy prediction and (2) at least one of energy and energy futures inresponse the revised energy prediction.
 16. The method as claimed inclaim 15, wherein, in response to transmitting the revised costrepresenting the cost differential between the initial and revisedenergy predictions, receiving via the communications adapter a responsefrom the at least one controller indicating whether the at least onedevice will use energy at the initial energy prediction or at therevised energy prediction.